Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?

Q: Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?

Prediction markets currently price this at 36%. A YES share costs 35.7¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 180.1% over 4.8mo.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?$43k liquidity$3k volumecloses 4.8mo

WorldIsraelPoliticsElectionsGeopoliticsMiddle East

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 35.7¢
Implied chance: 35.7%
Return if right: 180.1%
Spread cost: 1%

If you put in $100

You get 280.1 shares at 35.7¢ each.

YES wins: $280.11 back, a profit of $180.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.37 of that profit. Without it you would make $182.49.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 64.9¢
Implied chance: 64.9%
Return if right: 54.1%
Spread cost: 1%

If you put in $100

You get 154.1 shares at 64.9¢ each.

NO wins: $154.08 back, a profit of $54.08. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.72 of that profit. Without it you would make $54.80.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Oct 5, 04:14 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Defense will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Defense” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Defense are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Defense assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.