Will no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026?

Q: Will no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 89%. A YES share costs 89.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 12.4% over 8d.

When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?$6k liquidity$5k volumecloses 8d

climateWeatherHurricanesHurricane SeasonClimate & Science

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 89.0¢
Implied chance: 89.0%
Return if right: 12.4%
Spread cost: 21%

If you put in $100

You get 112.4 shares at 89.0¢ each.

YES wins: $112.36 back, a profit of $12.36. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $15.61.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 16.0¢
Implied chance: 16.0%
Return if right: 525.0%
Spread cost: 18%

If you put in $100

You get 625.0 shares at 16.0¢ each.

NO wins: $625.00 back, a profit of $525.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $115.74 of that profit. Without it you would make $640.74.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 24, 11:30 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will no Atlantic hurricane form in August 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes". A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026. The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/