Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 99.3¢
- Implied chance
- 99.3%
- Return if right
- 0.7%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 100.7 shares at 99.3¢ each.
YES wins: $100.70 back, a profit of $0.70. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.76.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 0.8¢
- Implied chance
- 0.8%
- Return if right
- 12400.0%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 12500.0 shares at 0.8¢ each.
NO wins: $12500.00 back, a profit of $12400.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $833.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $13233.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 09:32 PM8 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Nigel Farage vows to deport foreign criminals from UK prisonsAl Jazeera · 9h ago
- What do Clacton voters want from their next MP?BBC Politics · 2d ago
- The influencers taking on far-right leader Nigel FarageAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- Badenoch pens letter to Clacton ahead of by-electionBBC Politics · 3d ago
- The serial candidates standing against Farage in the Clacton by-electionBBC Politics · 4d ago
- Ballot paper for Clacton by-election is longest in British electoral historyBBC Politics · 9d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
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