Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%?

Q: Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%?

Prediction markets currently price this at 4%. A YES share costs 3.6¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2677.8% over 10.6mo.

Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory$26k liquidity$17k volumecloses 10.6mo

UKClactonPoliticsElectionsUK ElectionsUK By-Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 3.6¢
Implied chance: 3.6%
Return if right: 2677.8%
Spread cost: 34%

If you put in $100

You get 2777.8 shares at 3.6¢ each.

YES wins: $2777.78 back, a profit of $2677.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1388.89 of that profit. Without it you would make $4066.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.8¢
Implied chance: 98.8%
Return if right: 1.2%
Spread cost: 51%

If you put in $100

You get 101.2 shares at 98.8¢ each.

NO wins: $101.21 back, a profit of $1.21. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.24 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.46.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 08:22 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

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How this market resolves

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.