Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?

• UK: Nigel Farage beats a trash can in Clacton by-electionDeutsche Welle · 1mo ago
• Nigel Farage wins Clacton byelection in contest boycotted by other main partiesThe Guardian · 1mo ago
• Nigel Farage set for decisive but arguably empty victory in ClactonThe Guardian · 1mo ago
• Polls close in Clacton byelection where Nigel Farage faces slew of fringe candidatesThe Guardian · 1mo ago
• How Nigel Farage Ended Up Running Against Count Binface in ClactonThe New York Times · 1mo ago

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How this market resolves

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.