Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 12.6¢
- Implied chance
- 12.6%
- Return if right
- 693.7%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 793.7 shares at 12.6¢ each.
YES wins: $793.65 back, a profit of $693.65. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $46.69 of that profit. Without it you would make $740.34.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 88.8¢
- Implied chance
- 88.8%
- Return if right
- 12.6%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 112.6 shares at 88.8¢ each.
NO wins: $112.61 back, a profit of $12.61. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.89 of that profit. Without it you would make $13.51.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 09:22 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Nicolás Maduro’s wife seeks home detention ahead of trial citing ‘serious’ heart conditionNBC News · 14d ago
- Ex-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and wife seek to end drug charges case on immunity groundsNPR · 22d ago
- Nicolás Maduro flashes peace signs in first prison photos since US capture in CaracasFox News · 25d ago
- Nicolás Maduro shares photos from New York prison: "We are standing firm"CBS News · 25d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in pr…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra". This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket. If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.