Will New Zealand First Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 79.0¢
- Implied chance
- 79.0%
- Return if right
- 26.6%
- Spread cost
- 82%
If you put in $100
You get 126.6 shares at 79.0¢ each.
YES wins: $126.58 back, a profit of $26.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $120.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $146.91.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.0¢
- Implied chance
- 98.0%
- Return if right
- 2.0%
- Spread cost
- 97%
If you put in $100
You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.
NO wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $66.03 of that profit. Without it you would make $68.07.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- New Zealand First Party41.0%
- Labour Party57.5%
- Green Party55.0%
- National Party46.0%
- ACT New Zealand45.5%
- Te Pāti Māori43.5%
Latest: Aug 29, 10:33 AM
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will New Zealand First Party be part of the next Government …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
Other outcomes in Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
- Will Te Pāti Māori be part of the next Government of New Zealand?
- Will Labour Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?
- Will Green Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?
- Will National Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?
- Will ACT New Zealand be part of the next Government of New Zealand?