Will Nayib Bukele win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 97.9¢
- Implied chance
- 97.9%
- Return if right
- 2.1%
- Spread cost
- 41%
If you put in $100
You get 102.1 shares at 97.9¢ each.
YES wins: $102.15 back, a profit of $2.15. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.48 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.63.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 4.9¢
- Implied chance
- 4.9%
- Return if right
- 1940.8%
- Spread cost
- 30%
If you put in $100
You get 2040.8 shares at 4.9¢ each.
NO wins: $2040.82 back, a profit of $1940.82. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $816.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $2757.14.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 5, 05:04 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Salvadorans with TPS don’t know how long their protections will lastNBC News · 18d ago
- Trump administration allows TPS to continue for Salvadorans – for nowNPR · 24d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Nayib Bukele win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential elect…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in El Salvador on February 28, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by February 29, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal of El Salvador (https://www.tse.gob.sv/).
Source: https://www.tse.gob.sv/