Will Munetaka Murakami hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?

Q: Will Munetaka Murakami hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?

Prediction markets currently price this at 3%. A YES share costs 2.5¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 3900.0% over 2.0mo.

MLB: Home Runs Leader$879 liquidity$8k volumecloses 2.0mo

MLBHome runsbaseballSportsRewards 50, 4.5, 20

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 2.5¢
Implied chance: 2.5%
Return if right: 3900.0%
Spread cost: 29%

If you put in $100

You get 4000.0 shares at 2.5¢ each.

YES wins: $4000.00 back, a profit of $3900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1555.56 of that profit. Without it you would make $5455.56.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.9¢
Implied chance: 98.9%
Return if right: 1.1%
Spread cost: 39%

If you put in $100

You get 101.1 shares at 98.9¢ each.

NO wins: $101.11 back, a profit of $1.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.72 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.83.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 11, 10:24 PM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted1 further outcome not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Munetaka Murakami hit the most home runs during the 202…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.