Will Mário da Silva Júnior win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?

Q: Will Mário da Silva Júnior win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 3%. A YES share costs 2.8¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 3471.4% over 3.3mo.

Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election$9k liquidity$18k volumecloses 3.3mo

ElectionsPoliticsGeopolitics

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 2.8¢
Implied chance: 2.8%
Return if right: 3471.4%
Spread cost: 45%

If you put in $100

You get 3571.4 shares at 2.8¢ each.

YES wins: $3571.43 back, a profit of $3471.43. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2880.18 of that profit. Without it you would make $6351.61.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.7¢
Implied chance: 99.7%
Return if right: 0.3%
Spread cost: 81%

If you put in $100

You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.

NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.27 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.57.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 24, 03:31 AM8 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Mário da Silva Júnior win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presid…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).