Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?

Q: Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 16%. A YES share costs 15.6¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 541.0% over 1.8mo.

Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won$12k liquidity$8k volumecloses 1.8mo

ElectionsGlobal ElectionsWorldBrazilPoliticsInternational Election Props

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 15.6¢
Implied chance: 15.6%
Return if right: 541.0%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 641.0 shares at 15.6¢ each.

YES wins: $641.03 back, a profit of $541.03. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $25.64 of that profit. Without it you would make $566.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 85.6¢
Implied chance: 85.6%
Return if right: 16.8%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 116.8 shares at 85.6¢ each.

NO wins: $116.82 back, a profit of $16.82. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.82 of that profit. Without it you would make $17.65.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

MDB14.9%

Latest: Aug 10, 03:26 PM9 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).