Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August?

Q: Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August?

Prediction markets currently price this at 43%. A YES share costs 43.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 132.6% over 16d.

August Inflation US - Monthly$3k liquidity$3k volumecloses 16d

CPIEconomyInflationCPI ReleaseMacro Indicators

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 43.0¢
Implied chance: 43.0%
Return if right: 132.6%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 232.6 shares at 43.0¢ each.

YES wins: $232.56 back, a profit of $132.56. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.74 of that profit. Without it you would make $135.29.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 58.0¢
Implied chance: 58.0%
Return if right: 72.4%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 172.4 shares at 58.0¢ each.

NO wins: $172.41 back, a profit of $72.41. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.50 of that profit. Without it you would make $73.91.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 25, 04:16 PM4 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.