Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 5.0¢
- Implied chance
- 5.0%
- Return if right
- 1900.0%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 2000.0 shares at 5.0¢ each.
YES wins: $2000.00 back, a profit of $1900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $173.91 of that profit. Without it you would make $2073.91.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.8¢
- Implied chance
- 95.8%
- Return if right
- 4.4%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 104.4 shares at 95.8¢ each.
NO wins: $104.38 back, a profit of $4.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.44 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.82.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Gaza honours Al Jazeera’s Anas al-Sharif and Mohammed QraiqeaAl Jazeera · 7h ago
- Remembering Anas, Mohammed and Gaza’s other slain journalistsAl Jazeera · 9h ago
- Locarno Open Doors: Talemwa Pius’ ‘A Vineyard for a Lobster’ and Mohammed Sheikh’s ‘Accept My Plea for a Burial’ Win Top Prizes at Festival’s Africa Industry FocusVariety · 10h ago
- Iran-aligned Houthis claim they attacked oil refinery in Saudi ArabiaThe Guardian · 1d ago
- Yemen's Houthis claim attack on Aramco oil facility in Saudi Arabia, and other Middle East newsNPR · 1d ago
- Saudi Arabia says fire extinguished at Aramco facility in JizanAl Jazeera · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.