Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Q: Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 89%. A YES share costs 89.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 12.4% over 21d.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by August 31?$32 liquidity$208 volumecloses 21d

IranTrumpUS-IranPoliticsPeace DealGeopolitics

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 89.0¢
Implied chance: 89.0%
Return if right: 12.4%
Spread cost: 88%

If you put in $100

You get 112.4 shares at 89.0¢ each.

YES wins: $112.36 back, a profit of $12.36. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $93.83 of that profit. Without it you would make $106.19.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 92.0¢
Implied chance: 92.0%
Return if right: 8.7%
Spread cost: 91%

If you put in $100

You get 108.7 shares at 92.0¢ each.

NO wins: $108.70 back, a profit of $8.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $85.48 of that profit. Without it you would make $94.17.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 11:25 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted2 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran di…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.