Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Q: Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Prediction markets currently price this at 5%. A YES share costs 4.5¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2122.2% over 1.3mo.

Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?$10k liquidity$16k volumecloses 1.3mo

PoliticsgerrymanderMidtermsredistrictElectionsGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 4.5¢
Implied chance: 4.5%
Return if right: 2122.2%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 2222.2 shares at 4.5¢ each.

YES wins: $2222.22 back, a profit of $2122.22. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $246.91 of that profit. Without it you would make $2369.14.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 96.4¢
Implied chance: 96.4%
Return if right: 3.7%
Spread cost: 12%

If you put in $100

You get 103.7 shares at 96.4¢ each.

NO wins: $103.73 back, a profit of $3.73. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.49 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.22.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 25, 12:57 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted2 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is: - Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; - Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and - In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.