Will Mikio Shimoji win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 47.0¢
- Implied chance
- 47.0%
- Return if right
- 112.8%
- Spread cost
- 59%
If you put in $100
You get 212.8 shares at 47.0¢ each.
YES wins: $212.77 back, a profit of $112.77. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $164.59 of that profit. Without it you would make $277.36.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 94.0¢
- Implied chance
- 94.0%
- Return if right
- 6.4%
- Spread cost
- 82%
If you put in $100
You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.
NO wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $29.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $36.05.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Mikio Shimoji25.5%
- Genta Koja48.5%
- Denny Tamaki23.5%
- Takashi Higa5.5%
- Masahiro Sueyoshi23.5%
- Shun Kaneshima33.0%
Latest: Aug 12, 10:08 PM1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
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How this market resolves
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Okinawa on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If no candidate reaches the legally required number of votes to win the election, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Okinawa and Japan, including the Okinawa Prefecture Election Administration Committee (https://www.pref.okinawa.jp/kensei/senkyo/index.html).
Other outcomes in Okinawa Governor Election Winner
- Will Takashi Higa win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?
- Will Chosuke Yara win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?
- Will Masahiro Sueyoshi win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?
- Will Shun Kaneshima win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?
- Will Genta Koja win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?
- Will Denny Tamaki win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election?