Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

Q: Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

Prediction markets currently price this at 12%. A YES share costs 12.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 733.3% over 1.7mo.

3rd Largest Company end of September?$30k liquidity$3k volumecloses 1.7mo

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 12.0¢
Implied chance: 12.0%
Return if right: 733.3%
Spread cost: 22%

If you put in $100

You get 833.3 shares at 12.0¢ each.

YES wins: $833.33 back, a profit of $733.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $202.94 of that profit. Without it you would make $936.27.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 92.7¢
Implied chance: 92.7%
Return if right: 7.9%
Spread cost: 26%

If you put in $100

You get 107.9 shares at 92.7¢ each.

NO wins: $107.87 back, a profit of $7.87. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.81 of that profit. Without it you would make $10.68.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 06:54 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted2 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.