Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Q: Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Prediction markets currently price this at 26%. A YES share costs 26.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 284.6% over 4.7mo.

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?$3k liquidity$953 volumecloses 4.7mo

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 26.0¢
Implied chance: 26.0%
Return if right: 284.6%
Spread cost: 20%

If you put in $100

You get 384.6 shares at 26.0¢ each.

YES wins: $384.62 back, a profit of $284.62. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $69.93 of that profit. Without it you would make $354.55.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 82.0¢
Implied chance: 82.0%
Return if right: 22.0%
Spread cost: 22%

If you put in $100

You get 122.0 shares at 82.0¢ each.

NO wins: $121.95 back, a profit of $21.95. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $28.21.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 05:25 PM5 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.