Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 9.9¢
- Implied chance
- 9.9%
- Return if right
- 910.1%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 1010.1 shares at 9.9¢ each.
YES wins: $1010.10 back, a profit of $910.10. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $94.87 of that profit. Without it you would make $1004.97.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 91.8¢
- Implied chance
- 91.8%
- Return if right
- 8.9%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 108.9 shares at 91.8¢ each.
NO wins: $108.93 back, a profit of $8.93. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.02 of that profit. Without it you would make $9.95.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- El-Sayed Holds a Narrow Lead Over Rogers in New Michigan Senate Polls: 7 TakeawaysThe New York Times · 2h ago
- Democrats demand answers after man dies in car crash during ICE traffic stop in MichiganThe Guardian · 7h ago
- Democrats leading in Michigan, New Hampshire Senate races: SurveyThe Hill · 7h ago
- Democrats Show Strength in Michigan Senate Race but Trail in Maine, Polls FindThe New York Times · 11h ago
- Democrats Show Strength in Michigan Senate Race but Trail in Maine, Polls FindThe New York Times · 11h ago
- MORNING GLORY: El-Sayed might have a problem with the Black vote in MichiganFox News · 12h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Michigan voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a measure which, if passed, would call a state constitutional convention to rewrite the state constitution. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question passes according to Michigan electoral procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the Michigan Constitutional Convention Question is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Michigan, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the results of the vote according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Michigan, specifically the Michigan Secretary of State (https://www.michigan.gov/sos).