Will Michael win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

Q: Will Michael win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

Prediction markets currently price this at 5%. A YES share costs 4.8¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1983.3% over 7.1mo.

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner$15k liquidity$90 volumecloses 7.1mo

AwardsMoviesOscarsCultureThe OdysseyOscars 2027

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 4.8¢
Implied chance: 4.8%
Return if right: 1983.3%
Spread cost: 45%

If you put in $100

You get 2083.3 shares at 4.8¢ each.

YES wins: $2083.33 back, a profit of $1983.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1620.37 of that profit. Without it you would make $3603.70.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.4¢
Implied chance: 99.4%
Return if right: 0.6%
Spread cost: 78%

If you put in $100

You get 100.6 shares at 99.4¢ each.

NO wins: $100.60 back, a profit of $0.60. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.17 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.77.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 10, 04:12 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.