Will Michael Wacha lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Q: Will Michael Wacha lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

Prediction markets currently price this at 2%. A YES share costs 1.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 5163.2% over 1.6mo.

MLB: ERA Leader$283 liquidity$333 volumecloses 1.6mo

MLBbaseballSportsERARewards 50, 4.5, 20

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 1.9¢
Implied chance: 1.9%
Return if right: 5163.2%
Spread cost: 40%

If you put in $100

You get 5263.2 shares at 1.9¢ each.

YES wins: $5263.16 back, a profit of $5163.16. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3432.49 of that profit. Without it you would make $8595.65.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.6¢
Implied chance: 99.6%
Return if right: 0.4%
Spread cost: 65%

If you put in $100

You get 100.4 shares at 99.6¢ each.

NO wins: $100.40 back, a profit of $0.40. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.76 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.16.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 11, 07:00 AM7 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Michael Wacha lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the pitcher who records the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the pitcher that records more innings pitched during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that records more strikeouts during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the pitcher that walked fewer batters during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the pitcher whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.