Will Michael Olise Transfer to Real Madrid?

Q: Will Michael Olise Transfer to Real Madrid?

Prediction markets currently price this at 2%. A YES share costs 2.3¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 4247.8% over 21d.

Will Michael Olise Transfer to Real Madrid?$15k liquidity$28k volumecloses 21d

SoccerSportsreal madridbayern munichSoccer Transfers

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 2.3¢
Implied chance: 2.3%
Return if right: 4247.8%
Spread cost: 33%

If you put in $100

You get 4347.8 shares at 2.3¢ each.

YES wins: $4347.83 back, a profit of $4247.83. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2103.79 of that profit. Without it you would make $6351.61.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.2¢
Implied chance: 99.2%
Return if right: 0.8%
Spread cost: 49%

If you put in $100

You get 100.8 shares at 99.2¢ each.

NO wins: $100.81 back, a profit of $0.81. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.77 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.57.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Will Michael Olise Transfer to R…1.6%

Latest: Aug 10, 09:17 PM

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Michael Olise Transfer to Real Madrid?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Michael Olise transfers from Bayern Munich to Real Madrid by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Loan deals will qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Bayern Munich and Real Madrid and a consensus of credible media reporting.