Will Michael Obadal be the next confirmed Army Secretary?

Q: Will Michael Obadal be the next confirmed Army Secretary?

Prediction markets currently price this at 10%. A YES share costs 10.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 900.0% over 2.3y.

Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?$263 liquidity$71 volumecloses 2.3y

ArmyTrumpPoliticsTrump Cabinet

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 10.0¢
Implied chance: 10.0%
Return if right: 900.0%
Spread cost: 32%

If you put in $100

You get 1000.0 shares at 10.0¢ each.

YES wins: $1000.00 back, a profit of $900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $428.57 of that profit. Without it you would make $1328.57.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 96.0¢
Implied chance: 96.0%
Return if right: 4.2%
Spread cost: 45%

If you put in $100

You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.

NO wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.36 of that profit. Without it you would make $7.53.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 24, 03:14 AM2 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the next individual to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army between market creation and January 19, 2029, 11:59 PM ET. A person will be considered to formally assume the position of United States Secretary of the Army if they are appointed to the position by the President and confirmed by the Senate, or if they assume the position through a recess appointment. Acting or interim holders of the specified position do not qualify. If no individual assumes the position by January 19, 2029 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House or United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.