Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Q: Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 2%. A YES share costs 2.1¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 4661.9% over 4.7mo.

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?$34k liquidity$37k volumecloses 4.7mo

TechAIGrokOpenAIAnthropicAI Rankings

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 2.1¢
Implied chance: 2.1%
Return if right: 4661.9%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 4761.9 shares at 2.1¢ each.

YES wins: $4761.90 back, a profit of $4661.90. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $501.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $5163.16.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.3¢
Implied chance: 98.3%
Return if right: 1.7%
Spread cost: 11%

If you put in $100

You get 101.7 shares at 98.3¢ each.

NO wins: $101.73 back, a profit of $1.73. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.21 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.94.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Meta1.9%

Latest: Aug 10, 07:20 PM9 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.