Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 special election?

Q: Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 special election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 16%. A YES share costs 15.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 528.9% over 8d.

CA-14 Special Election Winner?$12k liquidity$2k volumecloses 8d

PoliticsElectionsCongresshouse of representativesUS ElectionSwalwell

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 15.9¢
Implied chance: 15.9%
Return if right: 528.9%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 628.9 shares at 15.9¢ each.

YES wins: $628.93 back, a profit of $528.93. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $28.96 of that profit. Without it you would make $557.89.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 85.5¢
Implied chance: 85.5%
Return if right: 17.0%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 117.0 shares at 85.5¢ each.

NO wins: $116.96 back, a profit of $16.96. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.97 of that profit. Without it you would make $17.92.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 05:49 PM5 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.