Will MDFM win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.7¢
- Implied chance
- 1.7%
- Return if right
- 5782.4%
- Spread cost
- 42%
If you put in $100
You get 5882.4 shares at 1.7¢ each.
YES wins: $5882.35 back, a profit of $5782.35. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4117.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $9900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.7¢
- Implied chance
- 99.7%
- Return if right
- 0.3%
- Spread cost
- 70%
If you put in $100
You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.
NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.01.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 22, 03:16 AM1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
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How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
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