Will Marlene Soccas win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?

Q: Will Marlene Soccas win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 32%. A YES share costs 32.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 212.5% over 1.6mo.

Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place$174 liquidity$56 volumecloses 1.6mo

BrazilPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 32.0¢
Implied chance: 32.0%
Return if right: 212.5%
Spread cost: 42%

If you put in $100

You get 312.5 shares at 32.0¢ each.

YES wins: $312.50 back, a profit of $212.50. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $152.62 of that profit. Without it you would make $365.12.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 89.0¢
Implied chance: 89.0%
Return if right: 12.4%
Spread cost: 55%

If you put in $100

You get 112.4 shares at 89.0¢ each.

NO wins: $112.36 back, a profit of $12.36. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $15.03 of that profit. Without it you would make $27.39.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 17, 08:13 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Marlene Soccas win the most votes in the 2026 Santa Cat…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).