Will Markus Söder be the next Chancellor of Germany?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 16.0¢
- Implied chance
- 16.0%
- Return if right
- 525.0%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 625.0 shares at 16.0¢ each.
YES wins: $625.00 back, a profit of $525.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $20.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $545.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 85.0¢
- Implied chance
- 85.0%
- Return if right
- 17.6%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 117.6 shares at 85.0¢ each.
NO wins: $117.65 back, a profit of $17.65. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.70 of that profit. Without it you would make $18.34.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Markus Söder15.5%
- No Next Chancellor before 202853.5%
- Tino Chrupalla0.6%
- Hendrik Wüst16.5%
- Katharina Dröge0.6%
- Boris Pistorius8.5%
Latest: Sep 24, 07:31 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted3 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Germany, Netherlands and France: New European managers make their debutsFrance 24 · 1h ago
- Elif Eralp: ‘Germany’s Zohran Mamdani’ who vows to be a mayor for all BerlinersThe Guardian · 4h ago
- Germany sets out plan to phase out fossil fuels by 2045Deutsche Welle · 6h ago
- Germany pledges to phase out fossil fuels for first time with target of 2045The Guardian · 16h ago
- Germany's oldest party, the center-left SPD, is in a difficult position following its success in the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state electionDeutsche Welle · 18h ago
- Oasis Adds More Live ’27 Shows in U.K., Italy and GermanyVariety · 18h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Markus Söder be the next Chancellor of Germany?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
- Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?
- Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- Will Jens Spahn be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- Will Tino Chrupalla be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- Will Katharina Dröge be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- Will Carsten Linnemann be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- Will Lars Klingbeil be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- Will Boris Pistorius be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- Will Sahra Wagenknecht be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany?
- Will Felix Banaszak be the next Chancellor of Germany?