Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 5–10%?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 43.0¢
- Implied chance
- 43.0%
- Return if right
- 132.6%
- Spread cost
- 58%
If you put in $100
You get 232.6 shares at 43.0¢ each.
YES wins: $232.56 back, a profit of $132.56. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $184.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $316.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.0¢
- Implied chance
- 95.0%
- Return if right
- 5.3%
- Spread cost
- 83%
If you put in $100
You get 105.3 shares at 95.0¢ each.
NO wins: $105.26 back, a profit of $5.26. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $26.32 of that profit. Without it you would make $31.58.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Markey 5–10%24.0%
- Markey 25–30%45.5%
- Markey 40%+24.0%
- Markey 15–20%32.0%
- Moulton <5%24.0%
- Moulton 5%+4.5%
Latest: Aug 23, 05:23 AM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Massachusetts fishermen land 1,260-pound blue marlin, just short of world recordFox News · 7h ago
- Arrest warrant issued for wife of off-duty Massachusetts cop found dead in homeABC News · 1d ago
- AOC endorses Sen Ed Markey as incumbent faces Dem US Senate primary challenge from Rep Seth MoultonFox News · 2d ago
- Markey, Moulton lock horns ahead of Massachusetts Senate primary: 3 takeaways from last debateThe Hill · 2d ago
- Police hunt for woman suspected of killing cop husband in MassachusettsCBS News · 3d ago
- Ocasio-Cortez backs Markey in Massachusetts Senate primaryThe Hill · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate prima…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Source: https://www.sec.state.ma.us/
Other outcomes in Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
- Will Seth Moulton win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by at least 5%?
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 35–40%?
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 40% or more?
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by less than 5%?
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 10–15%?
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 30–35%?
- Will Seth Moulton win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by less than 5%?
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 15–20%?
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 25–30%?
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 20–25%?