Will Marine Le Pen be the next President of the National Rally in 2026?

Q: Will Marine Le Pen be the next President of the National Rally in 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 1.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 9900.0% over 2.5mo.

Next President of the National Rally in 2026?$9k liquidity$1k volumecloses 2.5mo

FrancePoliticsElectionsnational rallyGlobal ElectionsInternational Election Props

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 1.0¢
Implied chance: 1.0%
Return if right: 9900.0%
Spread cost: 25%

If you put in $100

You get 10000.0 shares at 1.0¢ each.

YES wins: $10000.00 back, a profit of $9900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3333.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $13233.33.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.5¢
Implied chance: 99.5%
Return if right: 0.5%
Spread cost: 34%

If you put in $100

You get 100.5 shares at 99.5¢ each.

NO wins: $100.50 back, a profit of $0.50. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.76.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 07:28 PM6 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Marine Le Pen be the next President of the National Ral…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

The National Rally’s 2026 Congress is scheduled for October 24–25, 2026 in Orléans, where the results of the election for party president are expected to be announced. This market will resolve to the individual who is officially announced as President of the National Rally following the National Rally’s 2026 Congress. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially elected, reelected, or otherwise announced by the National Rally as President of the National Rally following the 2026 Congress. If no such President of the National Rally is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.