Will Marina Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

Q: Will Marina Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 12%. A YES share costs 12.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 733.3% over 2d.

São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place$2k liquidity$13k volumecloses 2d

BrazilPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 12.0¢
Implied chance: 12.0%
Return if right: 733.3%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 833.3 shares at 12.0¢ each.

YES wins: $833.33 back, a profit of $733.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $36.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $769.57.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 89.0¢
Implied chance: 89.0%
Return if right: 12.4%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 112.4 shares at 89.0¢ each.

NO wins: $112.36 back, a profit of $12.36. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $12.99.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Oct 2, 04:05 PM8 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

James Gray’s ‘Paper Tiger’ Set to Open the 50th São Paulo Film FestivalVariety · 16d ago

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How this market resolves

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).