Will Maria Pappas win the 2027 Chicago mayoral election?

Q: Will Maria Pappas win the 2027 Chicago mayoral election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 6%. A YES share costs 5.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1594.9% over 6.4mo.

2027 Chicago Mayoral Election$863 liquidity$218 volumecloses 6.4mo

mayorChicagoIllinoisPoliticsElectionsUS Election

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 5.9¢
Implied chance: 5.9%
Return if right: 1594.9%
Spread cost: 49%

If you put in $100

You get 1694.9 shares at 5.9¢ each.

YES wins: $1694.92 back, a profit of $1594.92. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1530.89 of that profit. Without it you would make $3125.81.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.7¢
Implied chance: 99.7%
Return if right: 0.3%
Spread cost: 91%

If you put in $100

You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.

NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.20.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 24, 03:42 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The 2027 Chicago mayoral election will be held on February 23, 2027, to elect the mayor of Chicago, Illinois. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on April 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Chicago.