Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.3¢
- Implied chance
- 3.3%
- Return if right
- 2930.3%
- Spread cost
- 19%
If you put in $100
You get 3030.3 shares at 3.3¢ each.
YES wins: $3030.30 back, a profit of $2930.30. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $673.40 of that profit. Without it you would make $3603.70.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.9¢
- Implied chance
- 97.9%
- Return if right
- 2.1%
- Spread cost
- 23%
If you put in $100
You get 102.1 shares at 97.9¢ each.
NO wins: $102.15 back, a profit of $2.15. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.77.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- With Netanyahu at the U.N., Mamdani plants an olive tree with PalestiniansThe Washington Post · 17m ago
- Netanyahu says "shame on you" to Mamdani, claims "Jews no longer feel safe"CBS News · 40m ago
- Netanyahu Attacks Mamdani in Heated U.N. SpeechThe New York Times · 1h ago
- Elif Eralp: ‘Germany’s Zohran Mamdani’ who vows to be a mayor for all BerlinersThe Guardian · 17h ago
- Mamdani roasted for staying tight-lipped on 'war criminal' Pezeshkian after raging about NetanyahuFox News · 1d ago
- Mamdani fires back at Netanyahu, calls Israeli leader 'architect of horrific genocide' ahead of UN visitFox News · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent). When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe. The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted. If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.