Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before 2027?

Q: Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before 2027?

Prediction markets currently price this at 21%. A YES share costs 21.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 376.2% over 3.0mo.

Who will be arrested before 2027?$10k liquidity$2k volumecloses 3.0mo

James ComeyTrumpPolitics

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 21.0¢
Implied chance: 21.0%
Return if right: 376.2%
Spread cost: 23%

If you put in $100

You get 476.2 shares at 21.0¢ each.

YES wins: $476.19 back, a profit of $376.19. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $112.04 of that profit. Without it you would make $488.24.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 87.0¢
Implied chance: 87.0%
Return if right: 14.9%
Spread cost: 27%

If you put in $100

You get 114.9 shares at 87.0¢ each.

NO wins: $114.94 back, a profit of $14.94. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.54 of that profit. Without it you would make $20.48.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Oct 1, 07:04 PM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted1 further outcome not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.