Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 6.4¢
- Implied chance
- 6.4%
- Return if right
- 1462.5%
- Spread cost
- 26%
If you put in $100
You get 1562.5 shares at 6.4¢ each.
YES wins: $1562.50 back, a profit of $1462.50. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $520.83 of that profit. Without it you would make $1983.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.8¢
- Implied chance
- 96.8%
- Return if right
- 3.3%
- Spread cost
- 34%
If you put in $100
You get 103.3 shares at 96.8¢ each.
NO wins: $103.31 back, a profit of $3.31. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.74 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.04.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Macron trashes American free speech as riots grip France — internet unloads: ‘Enormous fool’Fox News · 22h ago
- Macron observes test of new nuclear-capable missile without warheadFrance 24 · 1d ago
- Merz, Macron seek tougher EU measures against unfair tradeDeutsche Welle · 2d ago
- Macron slams Russia’s ‘irresponsible’ strikes on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructureFrance 24 · 2d ago
- Trump, Macron confirm Europe will release diesel stockpiles after US requestsDeutsche Welle · 5d ago
- France's Macron, Spain's Sanchez welcome idea of UK rejoining EU after Burnham remarksDeutsche Welle · 7d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative. A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify. If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately. This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held. The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.