Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 11.0¢
- Implied chance
- 11.0%
- Return if right
- 809.1%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 909.1 shares at 11.0¢ each.
YES wins: $909.09 back, a profit of $809.09. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $90.91 of that profit. Without it you would make $900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 91.0¢
- Implied chance
- 91.0%
- Return if right
- 9.9%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 109.9 shares at 91.0¢ each.
NO wins: $109.89 back, a profit of $9.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $11.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 2, 03:11 PM9 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Paraguay, a tax and political haven for Brazil's far rightFrance 24 · 2h ago
- Brazil Consular Services Halted by US, Australia Before ElectionBloomberg · 2h ago
- What's real and what's fake? How AI is impacting Brazil's election raceFrance 24 · 4h ago
- U.S. Suspends Consular Services in Brazil on Eve of ElectionsThe New York Times · 4h ago
- Brazil's election: Lula or Bolsonaro Jr?France 24 · 4h ago
- Wall Street Loads Up on Derivatives Ahead of Toss-Up Brazil VoteBloomberg · 4h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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