Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 58.0¢
- Implied chance
- 58.0%
- Return if right
- 72.4%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 172.4 shares at 58.0¢ each.
YES wins: $172.41 back, a profit of $72.41. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $76.99.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 45.0¢
- Implied chance
- 45.0%
- Return if right
- 122.2%
- Spread cost
- 6%
If you put in $100
You get 222.2 shares at 45.0¢ each.
NO wins: $222.22 back, a profit of $122.22. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $7.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $129.89.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 6, 07:41 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minis…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: https://www.gov.br/planalto