Will Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 44.0¢
- Implied chance
- 44.0%
- Return if right
- 127.3%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 227.3 shares at 44.0¢ each.
YES wins: $227.27 back, a profit of $127.27. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.29 of that profit. Without it you would make $132.56.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 58.0¢
- Implied chance
- 58.0%
- Return if right
- 72.4%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 172.4 shares at 58.0¢ each.
NO wins: $172.41 back, a profit of $72.41. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.02 of that profit. Without it you would make $75.44.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 11:19 PM
Latest news
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How this market resolves
A by-election for the Western Australia state legislative constituency of Secret Harbour is currently scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Western Australian Electoral Commission (https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/).