Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Q: Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Prediction markets currently price this at 14%. A YES share costs 14.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 614.3% over 18d.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory$21k liquidity$9k volumecloses 18d

WorldBrazilPoliticsElectionsGlobal ElectionsInternational Election Props

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 14.0¢
Implied chance: 14.0%
Return if right: 614.3%
Spread cost: 8%

If you put in $100

You get 714.3 shares at 14.0¢ each.

YES wins: $714.29 back, a profit of $614.29. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $54.95 of that profit. Without it you would make $669.23.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 88.0¢
Implied chance: 88.0%
Return if right: 13.6%
Spread cost: 9%

If you put in $100

You get 113.6 shares at 88.0¢ each.

NO wins: $113.64 back, a profit of $13.64. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.31 of that profit. Without it you would make $14.94.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Oct 8, 12:03 AM2 further outcomes not shown

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How this market resolves

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).