Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?

Q: Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?

Prediction markets currently price this at 3%. A YES share costs 3.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 3233.3% over 28d.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo$13k liquidity$201 volumecloses 28d

BrazilIsraelSenateMidtermsPoliticsElections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 3.0¢
Implied chance: 3.0%
Return if right: 3233.3%
Spread cost: 47%

If you put in $100

You get 3333.3 shares at 3.0¢ each.

YES wins: $3333.33 back, a profit of $3233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2916.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $6150.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.8¢
Implied chance: 99.8%
Return if right: 0.2%
Spread cost: 88%

If you put in $100

You get 100.2 shares at 99.8¢ each.

NO wins: $100.20 back, a profit of $0.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.43 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.63.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Oct 8, 12:02 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The runoff round of the Brazilian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. Legislative elections in Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. The United States midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to the single listed outcome that matches all three of the following: the winner of the Brazilian presidential election, the first Prime Minister of Israel to be sworn in as a result of the election, and the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the midterm elections. For full rules for the Brazilian presidential election, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election For full rules for the Israeli Prime Minister, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election For full rules for the United States Senate control, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026 Additional options may be added to this market between market creation and resolution. In the event that any constituent market resolves to "Other," this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve according to the sources named in the three markets linked above.