Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 12.0¢
- Implied chance
- 12.0%
- Return if right
- 733.3%
- Spread cost
- 19%
If you put in $100
You get 833.3 shares at 12.0¢ each.
YES wins: $833.33 back, a profit of $733.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $166.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 92.0¢
- Implied chance
- 92.0%
- Return if right
- 8.7%
- Spread cost
- 22%
If you put in $100
You get 108.7 shares at 92.0¢ each.
NO wins: $108.70 back, a profit of $8.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.42 of that profit. Without it you would make $11.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Lionel Messi10.0%
- Harry Kane91.4%
- Lamine Yamal73.5%
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia34.7%
- Ousmane Dembélé15.5%
- Michael Olise2.5%
Latest: Aug 27, 03:44 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted3 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Lionel Messi fined for striking opponent in Inter Miami MLS gameAl Jazeera · 5d ago
- Lionel Messi scores first goal for Inter Miami since father’s deathAl Jazeera · 7d ago
- Lionel Messi misses penalty as Nashville thrash Inter Miami in MLSAl Jazeera · 11d ago
- Lionel Messi says he has "serious doubts" about soccer future after death of his fatherCBS News · 14d ago
- Lionel Messi not certain to play ‘much longer’ after father’s deathAl Jazeera · 15d ago
- Lionel Messi returns to Argentina after father Jorge’s deathAl Jazeera · 18d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'O…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi officially finishes in the top 3 (positions 1 through 3) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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