Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 30.0¢
- Implied chance
- 30.0%
- Return if right
- 233.3%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 333.3 shares at 30.0¢ each.
YES wins: $333.33 back, a profit of $233.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $5.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $238.98.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 71.0¢
- Implied chance
- 71.0%
- Return if right
- 40.8%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 140.8 shares at 71.0¢ each.
NO wins: $140.85 back, a profit of $40.85. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $41.84.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Lionel Messi25.5%
- Lamine Yamal94.3%
- Harry Kane97.2%
- Kylian Mbappé75.5%
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia9.8%
- Ousmane Dembélé6.5%
Latest: Oct 11, 08:19 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted2 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Lionel Messi returns from Argentina farewell as Inter Miami face DC UnitedAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Cristiano Ronaldo pays tribute to Lionel Messi after Argentina farewellAl Jazeera · 4d ago
- WATCH: Buenos Aires celebrates Lionel Messi with drone showABC News · 4d ago
- Lionel Messi Scores in Emotional Argentina FarewellNBC News · 5d ago
- Lionel Messi’s last game for Argentina ends in triumph and tearsAl Jazeera · 5d ago
- Lionel Messi scores as Argentina beat Benin for his last international gameFrance 24 · 5d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'O…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi officially finishes in the top 3 (positions 1 through 3) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: https://www.ballondor.com/
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