Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?

Q: Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?

Prediction markets currently price this at 19%. A YES share costs 19.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 426.3% over 4.3mo.

Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?$10k liquidity$2k volumecloses 4.3mo

WorldGermanyPoliticsElectionsSaxony-AnhaltSachsen-Anhalt

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 19.0¢
Implied chance: 19.0%
Return if right: 426.3%
Spread cost: 16%

If you put in $100

You get 526.3 shares at 19.0¢ each.

YES wins: $526.32 back, a profit of $426.32. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $79.74 of that profit. Without it you would make $506.06.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 86.0¢
Implied chance: 86.0%
Return if right: 16.3%
Spread cost: 18%

If you put in $100

You get 116.3 shares at 86.0¢ each.

NO wins: $116.28 back, a profit of $16.28. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.48 of that profit. Without it you would make $19.76.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 22, 03:14 AM1 further outcome not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government formed after the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Sachsen-Anhalt state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the State Government of Sachsen-Anhalt and the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).