Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 18.7¢
- Implied chance
- 18.7%
- Return if right
- 434.8%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 534.8 shares at 18.7¢ each.
YES wins: $534.76 back, a profit of $434.76. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $23.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $458.66.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 82.9¢
- Implied chance
- 82.9%
- Return if right
- 20.6%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 120.6 shares at 82.9¢ each.
NO wins: $120.63 back, a profit of $20.63. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.18 of that profit. Without it you would make $21.80.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legis…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).