Will Liang Wen-tao win the next Kinmen County Magistrate election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.5¢
- Implied chance
- 4.5%
- Return if right
- 2122.2%
- Spread cost
- 48%
If you put in $100
You get 2222.2 shares at 4.5¢ each.
YES wins: $2222.22 back, a profit of $2122.22. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1944.44 of that profit. Without it you would make $4066.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.7¢
- Implied chance
- 99.7%
- Return if right
- 0.3%
- Spread cost
- 88%
If you put in $100
You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.
NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 14, 06:33 PM
Latest news
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How this market resolves
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).