Will Levon Aronian Win the Sinquefield Cup?

Q: Will Levon Aronian Win the Sinquefield Cup?

Prediction markets currently price this at 7%. A YES share costs 7.1¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1308.5% over 11d.

Sinquefield Cup Winner$729 liquidity$2k volumecloses 11d

ChessSportsEsports

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 7.1¢
Implied chance: 7.1%
Return if right: 1308.5%
Spread cost: 28%

If you put in $100

You get 1408.5 shares at 7.1¢ each.

YES wins: $1408.45 back, a profit of $1308.45. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $496.31 of that profit. Without it you would make $1804.76.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 96.6¢
Implied chance: 96.6%
Return if right: 3.5%
Spread cost: 36%

If you put in $100

You get 103.5 shares at 96.6¢ each.

NO wins: $103.52 back, a profit of $3.52. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.02 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.54.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 07:49 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Sinquefield Cup, currently scheduled for August 8, 2026 to August 21, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, the Grand Chess Tour (https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2026/tournaments/2026-sinquefield-cup/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.