Will Les Républicains hold fewer than 117 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?

Q: Will Les Républicains hold fewer than 117 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 1.3¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 7592.3% over 2.3mo.

Les Républicains Seat Count after French Senate Election?$8k liquidity$94 volumecloses 2.3mo

FrancePoliticsElectionsGlobal ElectionsFrench Senate ElectionsMain Election

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 1.3¢
Implied chance: 1.3%
Return if right: 7592.3%
Spread cost: 31%

If you put in $100

You get 7692.3 shares at 1.3¢ each.

YES wins: $7692.31 back, a profit of $7592.31. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3418.80 of that profit. Without it you would make $11011.11.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.5¢
Implied chance: 99.5%
Return if right: 0.5%
Spread cost: 45%

If you put in $100

You get 100.5 shares at 99.5¢ each.

NO wins: $100.50 back, a profit of $0.50. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.91.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 22, 03:16 AM1 further outcome not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST. This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Les Républicains as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST. The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés). A group will qualify as the Groupe Les Républicains if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes "Les Républicains" or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Les Républicains, and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If the group merges with one or more other groups, this market will resolve according to the total membership of the merged group, provided the merged group meets at least one of the criteria above. If no group qualifies, or group composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.