Will Legalise Cannabis win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 7.0¢
- Implied chance
- 7.0%
- Return if right
- 1328.6%
- Spread cost
- 45%
If you put in $100
You get 1428.6 shares at 7.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1428.57 back, a profit of $1328.57. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1103.07 of that profit. Without it you would make $2431.65.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.1¢
- Implied chance
- 99.1%
- Return if right
- 0.9%
- Spread cost
- 78%
If you put in $100
You get 100.9 shares at 99.1¢ each.
NO wins: $100.91 back, a profit of $0.91. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.20 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Legalise Cannabis4.0%
- One Nation80.0%
- Labor13.0%
- Liberal–National4.0%
- Shooters, Fishers, Farmers4.0%
- Libertarian4.0%
Latest: Aug 22, 04:03 AM2 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Victorian Labor promises free dental care if re-elected in Australia-first moveThe Guardian · 9h ago
- ‘There was grift, there was thuggery’: Victorian premier says ‘nothing is off limits’ at construction royal commissionThe Guardian · 2d ago
- Victorian teachers are to be the best paid in Australia. A union rebellion helped seal the dealThe Guardian · 5d ago
- Ralph Carr in ‘living hell’ after being convicted of rape, Victorian court hearsThe Guardian · 5d ago
- Victorian police investigate allegation a car drove deliberately at speed towards anti-racism protesterThe Guardian · 10d ago
- Victorian microparty MPs including Georgie Purcell to face re-election struggle after group voting tickets abolishedThe Guardian · 10d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Legalise Cannabis win the third-most seats in the next …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Other outcomes in Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
- Will One Nation win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?
- Will Labor win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?
- Will Liberal–National win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?
- Will Shooters, Fishers, Farmers win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?
- Will Libertarian win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?
- Will Greens win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?
- Will Animal Justice win the third-most seats in the next Victorian state election?