Will LDPR win the next Kaliningrad Oblast Parliament elections?

Q: Will LDPR win the next Kaliningrad Oblast Parliament elections?

Prediction markets currently price this at 4%. A YES share costs 3.5¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2757.1% over 1.3mo.

Kaliningrad Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner$16k liquidity$508 volumecloses 1.3mo

RussiaPoliticsElectionsGlobal ElectionsInternational Election Props

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 3.5¢
Implied chance: 3.5%
Return if right: 2757.1%
Spread cost: 47%

If you put in $100

You get 2857.1 shares at 3.5¢ each.

YES wins: $2857.14 back, a profit of $2757.14. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2406.02 of that profit. Without it you would make $5163.16.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.7¢
Implied chance: 99.7%
Return if right: 0.3%
Spread cost: 84%

If you put in $100

You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.

NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.64 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.94.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 08:37 PM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will LDPR win the next Kaliningrad Oblast Parliament electio…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections to elect the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast as a result of this election. The number of seats will include all members of the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order. A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Kaliningrad Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Kaliningrad Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.