Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation fall below 3,490 ft?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.1¢
- Implied chance
- 1.1%
- Return if right
- 8990.9%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 9090.9 shares at 1.1¢ each.
YES wins: $9090.91 back, a profit of $8990.91. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $432.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $9423.81.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.0¢
- Implied chance
- 99.0%
- Return if right
- 1.0%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 101.0 shares at 99.0¢ each.
NO wins: $101.01 back, a profit of $1.01. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.06.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Oct 5, 06:43 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersHeadlines are matched on the names in “Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation fall below 3,490 ft?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 3,490.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." For reference, 3,490 feet is the minimum power pool elevation below which Glen Canyon Dam can no longer generate hydroelectric power. Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Source: https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508