Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation stay above 1,038 ft?

Q: Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation stay above 1,038 ft?

Prediction markets currently price this at 7%. A YES share costs 7.1¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1308.5% over 6.7mo.

How low will Lake Mead drop?$1k liquidity$4k volumecloses 6.7mo

waterDroughtWeatherUnited StatesClimate & ScienceNatural Disasters

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 7.1¢
Implied chance: 7.1%
Return if right: 1308.5%
Spread cost: 47%

If you put in $100

You get 1408.5 shares at 7.1¢ each.

YES wins: $1408.45 back, a profit of $1308.45. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1155.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $2464.10.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.3¢
Implied chance: 99.3%
Return if right: 0.7%
Spread cost: 83%

If you put in $100

You get 100.7 shares at 99.3¢ each.

NO wins: $100.70 back, a profit of $0.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.35 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.06.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Sep 24, 05:21 AM

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation stay above 1,038 ft?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 1,038.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs.

Source: https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123